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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."